Can Brett Favre do it again?

Football Betting Lines

08/19/2010 -

EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. (AP) -Even Brett Favre was amazed by what he did last season as a 40-year-old quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings.

In his 19th season, Favre threw for 4,202 yards and 33 touchdowns while setting career bests for completion rate (68.4), quarterback rating (107.2) and fewest interceptions (seven).

Remarkable numbers at any age.

``Never in my wildest dreams when we sat here last year would I have thought I would've played the way I did,'' Favre said Wednesday after rejoining the Vikings. ``I mean, look at 18 years previous. I never played that good.''

So Brett, can you do it again?

Favre will turn 41 in October and is just the fourth quarterback in NFL history to play 20 seasons. George Blanda (26), Earl Morrall (21) and Vinny Testaverde (21) are the only QBs to play in more seasons than the gray-haired Favre.

Favre led the Vikings to a 12-4 record and the NFC North title, then became the first 40-year-old quarterback to win a playoff game when Minnesota thumped Dallas at the Metrodome in January.

The magical season came to a painful conclusion in the NFC title game in New Orleans, where the Vikings lost in overtime after Favre threw an interception at the end of regulation.

``I was even amazed,'' Favre said. ``To think that I could surpass that this year, first of all I don't need to. Because as well as I played, by far the best of my career, it wasn't enough. And that just goes to show you that all phases have to be hitting at the right time.

``But I need to play well obviously and be a great leader, the intangible things that I really thought would be more important last year than the statistics.''

The Vikings are betting on Favre delivering another stellar season. The team wanted him back so badly that coach Brad Childress sent Steve Hutchinson, Ryan Longwell and Jared Allen to Hattiesburg, Miss., on Monday night to get an answer. The three veterans convinced their close friend to make one more run at the Super Bowl and put off retirement for at least one more year.

``He's in shape, all that,'' Hutchinson said. ``He's still got the tools. He can still play. Everybody just has to step up around him and give him the opportunity.''

Coming off surgery to relieve a torn biceps in his throwing arm, Favre topped 300 yards passing six times, threw at least three TDs in six times as well. He had so much success that the run-oriented Minnesota offense morphed into a pass-first attack in the second half of the season.

Childress joked to Favre that ``maybe you've finally got it.''

With Adrian Peterson in the backfield, NFL offensive rookie of the year Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, who is still recovering from a hip injury, coming off a breakout season and speedster Bernard Berrian, the Vikings return all 11 starters from an offense that finished second in the NFL in scoring last season.

``I think sky's the limit,'' Childress said of Favre's potential. ``Everybody's always got to play around the quarterback, but he's got a good football team around him and he won't have to do it all himself.''

That's what everyone said last year when he arrived in Minnesota, yet he ended up carrying the offense for large stretches of the season.

Even more so than his performance on the field, the Vikings wanted the charismatic Favre back in the locker room. After quickly ingratiating himself to the team in the preseason, Favre was voted a captain and the rest of the veteran group gravitated toward his leadership style.

``Brett, the kind of player that he is, the kind of leadership that he brings to this team, it elevates the entire building, it really does,'' Allen said. ``You can see it every day.''

Said Childress: ``I think that's the definition of a leader - somebody that people want to play for and play well for. Just at the time he was coming back yesterday, sitting in our cafeteria, the buzz was palpable. It elevates everyone in the building and that's what a franchise QB does.''

Whereas last season Favre eased into the year with gimmes against Cleveland and Detroit the first two weeks, he'll need to be ready right from the start in 2010. The Vikings open the season on Sept. 9 at New Orleans and also play Miami, at the Jets, Dallas, at Green Bay and at New England in the first seven games.

Given his familiarity with a team that brings virtually every key performer back from last season, Favre should have an easier time getting back into the swing of things after missing another training camp.

``Last year all the things he had to worry about - trying to win over the guys, trying to make an impression, earn their trust, I said, 'Brett, that's all done. The guys, they want you here. Everybody knows you and you're comfortable. That's one less thing you have to do. Just come out and have fun,''' Hutchinson said.

There were plenty of doubters when Favre got off a private plane last year and arrived to a staggering amount of pomp and circumstance.

There likely will be even more this year, and the grandpa jokes will be plenty after his 21-year-old daughter Brittany gave birth to Favre's first grandchild in April.

``You should always be on your toes. You should always be looking over your shoulder, especially when you're soon-to-be 41 and a new grandfather,'' Favre said. ``You should really be because everyone's writing you off. It just seems like at 40, the guy's a has-been.

``So in saying that, it's motivation for me. I don't feel like I have anything to prove, but if I'm going to play, I want to play at a high level.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Betting Football

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.

Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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