Blind Luck captures Alabama Stakes

Horseracing Betting Lines

08/21/2010 - Saratoga Springs, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The two leading three-year-old fillies in training met Saturday in Saratoga's $500,000 Alabama Stakes and it was Blind Luck proving the better of the two in the 1 1/4-mile race.

Devil May Care, ridden by John Velazquez, was sent off as the 3-5 favorite in the six-horse field. Blind Luck, with Joel Rosario aboard, was the 9-5 second choice.

Devil May Care won Saratoga's Coaching Club American Oaks and Blind Luck was coming off a nose win in the Delaware Oaks.

The pace in the Alabama was set by Acting Happy with Tizahit right behind. Running in third was Connie and Michael followed by Havre de Grace, Devil May Care and Blind Luck.

The fillies maintained their positions up the backstretch and into the far turn. Around the final turn Devil May Care began her move on the outside, quickly joining the leaders as Blind Luck began to rally from last.

Coming into the stretch Acting Happy and Havre de Grace were to the inside, with Devil May Care on the outside. Blind Luck was four wide at the top of the stretch.

Down the stretch the battle was between Blind Luck, Havre de Grace and Acting Happy. Havre de Grace, ridden by Jeremy Rose, was beaten in the Delaware Oaks by the smallest of margins.

Blind Luck, trained by co-owner Jerry Hollendorfer, once again took the lead just yards from the wire and was able to record a neck victory over Havre de Grace with Acting Happy finishing third.

Todd Pletcher's Devil May Care had nothing down the stretch and finished fourth. Rounding out the order finish was Tizahit and Connie and Michael.

The final time for the Alabama on a fast track was 2:03.89.

Blind Luck returned $5.60, $3.80 and $3.60. Havre de Grace paid $6.00 and $5.90, while Acting Happy paid $9.00 to show.

Blind Luck, who is ranked seventh in the NTRA Thoroughbred Poll, notched her fifth win of the year in seven starts, and the ninth in 13 career races. The $300,000 first-place check brings her 2010 earnings to more than $1.1 million and her career winnings are now better than $1.8 million.

Hollendorfer has already indicated that he plans to bring back the filly for her four-year-old season.

"Next year we might consider putting her on turf if we feel it warrants that," the trainer said this week.

In June she was second to Switch in the Hollywood Oaks, which came after her furious rally to win the Kentucky Oaks. Blind Luck won the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park in April as the 1-2 favorite. In February the filly won the Las Virgenes at Santa Anita as the 1-5 favorite, but failed at 1-2 to Crisp in the Santa Anita Oaks in March when she finished third.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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